burns a circle in the snow

another long stretch of tiring days finished yesterday. my hope is to take a couple days off and relax for a bit before working again on my dissertation's first chapter. it's been about three weeks of working full time on a dissertation fellowship application and my prospectus. i defended the latter on wednesday and submitted the former on friday. in addition, i gave two presentations on wetlands and climate change at two of the schools where i work, and i created some more figures for the paper we're writing. i've now given this presentation five times in the last couple months, and i'm getting better at it performance-wise, but there's still more than a little room for improvement.

the other special opportunity i had yesterday was interviewing high school seniors who are vying for my school's top merit scholarship. they were an impressive group, especially on paper, and generally quite good in person, too. it was inspiring for me to talk with them and remind myself of where seniors are at.

rather than telling a story, how about some ncaa basketball analysis... i'll start with the east (and yes, they should get rid of these stupid region names--teams from both coasts, playing in denver?).

east: north carolina is a tough team, but i think tennessee is the best #2 rather than the worst. in fact, though i'd like for kansas to win it all, i think tennessee may have deserved a #1 over them. even bigger problem (might be the biggest problem in the tournament) is ranking indiana at #8. i'd put them at a #6. i'd switch indiana with oklahoma. and i'll pick tennessee on a narrow victory over unc in the elite eight (risky pick, but they can get up for it).

1 unc (good)
2 tennessee (up)
3 louisville (down... good, but i'm not on this bandwagon)
4 washington st (up... good, can beat #1s)
5 notre dame (down... not on the bandwagon
6 oklahoma (way down... they are not a #6 to me)
7 butler (up, but only a little)
8 indiana (up, switch with oklahoma)


midwest: toughest overall bracket. in fact, most of my favorite teams are in this bracket, which makes things really annoying. on the top side (#1v4 and their comrades), kansas is my favorite team with a good chance to win it all. i don't really like any of the other teams in the upper half, but in the #2v3 lower half of the bracket, i don't like georgetown (though they're quite good), but my favorite teams are here: #3 wisconsin, #7 gonzaga (the team i cheer for and try to watch the most every year), #6 usc (i wanted to like them early in the year, but they never really impressed me), and #11 kansas state (with national player of the year beasley). i think that kansas state is the most likely bracketbuster (they can beat any #1 seed in the tournament, and ranked #11, this is just crazy... yes, they're inconsistent so they probably won't go far). similarly, usc has proven they can beat #1 seeds. i think that gonzaga, kansas state, and usc are the strongest teams at their seeds. and wisconsin, they're the top #3.

1 kansas (weakest performance for #1, but my favorite, most balanced team to 10 players)
2 georgetown (good placement, i don't like them, but they're good)
3 wisconsin (up, should be ranked higher, not sure why or how, but they get it done)
4 vanderbilt (fine placement, but again i don't like them)
5 clemson (down, a little high, but they're better than i give them credit)
6 usc (about right, maybe up a little, inconsistent, but most dangerous #6)
7 gonzaga (up a little, too inconsistent, but my favorite, and can be tough)
8 unlv (honestly one of the teams ranked this high that i haven't watched)
11 kansas state (up, inconsistent, but so good you don't want to meet them, could upset four in a row and be in the final four)


west... the west is the weakest bracket in my view, or maybe it's just full of all the teams i don't like that much. i think that duke is the weakest #2, which is to say, the #2 seed with the smallest chance of beating the #1 to reach the final four. i think the weakness of the rest of their lower bracket to reach the elite eight is similarly weak, or they would have the least chance of the #2s of making it that far. having said that, i will say that i do enjoy watching duke this year and will watch their games, but honestly, this is by far the bracket with the fewest interesting games for me. i hope for a drake win over uconn, an arizona win over west virginia, purdue to beat xavier, and for someone to upset ucla, though i just don't see it happening.

1 ucla (right on, they're good, and i like them more this year than in the past, but still not much)
2 duke (weakest #2, could be the place for wisconsin, the two are pretty similar)
3 xavier (down, don't like them, and think they're the weakest #3)
4 uconn (don't like them, never have, but might be accurate ranking)
5 drake (probably okay placement, hope they beat uconn)
6 purdue (kind of like wisconsin, don't know why they're as good as they are, but do well)
7 west virginia (down, not as good at this slot as they should be, but then again, neither is miami)
8 byu (may lose to texas a&m, who doesn't impress me either)


south: what distinguishes the south is the separation between the top three teams and the rest of the group. while i think that the top three is probably stronger than (or at least as strong as) any other group, the rest of the field doesn't seem as competitive to me. i would switch michigan state (#5) and pitt (#4), but would still say the same thing. i think that texas has a decent chance to beat memphis, but as i said, the top three teams here all play very different styles, are all quality teams, and make choosing very difficult.

1 memphis (good, teams won't be able to beat them,
2 texas (a good #2 pick
3 stanford (a good #3 pick
4 pitt (don't like them, think they're closer to a #5)
5 michigan state (better than pitt, but inconsistent, can beat about anyone)
6 marquette (inconsistent, and hasn't done as well lately, but could be good)
7 miami (down, not good, i'd say a 10 seed)
8 mississippi st (didn't see them enough to know, but likely losing to oregon)


top consistent teams (will beat most teams most of the time): unc, memphis, kansas, ucla, duke, georgetown, tennessee, texas, wisconsin, stanford (my top ten)

top teams that confuse me as to why they are this good: wisconsin, uconn, pitt, xavier

top teams that don't impress me (or that i just plain don't like): georgetown, unc, uconn, pitt, louisville, vanderbilt, clemson

top inconsistent teams (can beat almost anyone): kansas state, usc, michigan state, indiana, washington state

teams that shouldn't have made it: villanova, kentucky, baylor, kentucky

teams that should have made it: dayton, illinois state (when your rpi is less than 34, you should be in the tournament)

big 12: kansas and texas are great. kansas state could beat anyone and has a low ranking. oklahoma could beat people also and are a little more consistent than kstate, but not as good. baylor and texas a&m aren't really in the same league as them.

big 10: four teams (pretty obvious who they would be), two are inconsistent, but good (michigan st with neitzel and morgan, indiana with white and gordon), and two are good but confusingly so (wisconsin and purdue). i just don't know how they do so well.

pac 10: ucla is good. stanford is a good #3, wash st is a good #4, and usc is a good #6. oregon and arizona are fine, but not a threat really.

i won't comment too much on other conferences, but the acc and sec had a couple good teams each. the other conferences with a lot of teams are good, but i don't like them too much.

overall, i've watched a lot of college basketball over the last two years, and probably paid more attention to womens college basketball than just about anyone who has never played, been involved with, or related to someone in that sport. and to a certain extent, it's more of a waste of my time than most things i do, kind of like reading baseball blogs. nothing really productive comes of it. even though i have watched ten times more college basketball each of the last two years, i'm not really any better at picking the teams that are going to win certain match-ups than i was when i didn't watch it at all. i guess i get two things. i get to know players, and through getting to know them, i begin to like them more. second, i have some common experiences and interests to discuss with people who care about these sports, whether it's college basketball or major league baseball. i've even started watching more nba basketball than i had in quite a while. and i guess that's a good thing. but putting all of this in its place, i don't think it's the kind of addiction that will outlast its usefulness or become troubling in any way. i suppose that's a good thing.

let's see. i guess the only other things of note recently were some good conversations catching up with friends in the twin cities while i was there last week a few days, and chatting with friends in california over ichat with video, a new experience for me. interestingly enough, my first internet video chats were for my job, working on science research from afar. using it for more social/friend reasons was fun, and not a bad way of doing things.

this song captured my mood last night somehow. i'm not sure exactly why. maybe part of it is the melting we had around here this last week, a series of days that i love beyond measure. we lost a lot of snow cover, and it puddled up because the frost is still plugging the drainage into the groundwater (something i study as it relates to wetlands, climate, and hydrology). but the song is good beyond that in a low-fi, alt-country sort of way. i'm not sure it's quite the same kind of country that rebecca solnit was talking about in this essay (probably the best thing i read over the last week), but the song is something i like nonetheless.

lazy eye by fruit bats

you are a diamond in the dirt
and you're the centipede who broke
the camel's back

you didn't think i'd get hurt
love burns a circle in the snow

you're frog eggs in the sky
that rain on the gwb
and the palisades
love turns tripe into gold
love burns a circle in the snow

hey, you there with the lazy eye
turn, turn it to me
let me hear you say it one more time
you, you there with the lazy eye